With Nothing Sticking to Trump, Stock Sellers Refuse to Dump

Posted on Posted in Views From The Hill

Market Condition

SPY exchange traded fund daily chart technical analysis
Click to enlarge

 

Market Commentary

One thing to note is that for all the instability and uncertainty created by the Trump administration’s first month in office, the markets have been anything but this. Instead, they have exhibited remarkable resilience as US stocks continue trending upward. One can throw just about any shit imaginable at POTUS Trump and it simply will not stick.

For example, these are just some of the latest concerns surrounding his administration: e.g. 1) the Muslim oriented immigration ban: WRONG!; 2) Protectionism Trade Policies: GREAT!; 3) an Agitative Posture towards the Judicial Branch: UNSAFE!; 4) the Resignation of National Security Adviser, Mike Flynn, over the inappropriate communication with Russia: UNAWARE!; and 5) the incessant dripping of leaks coming out of the Oval Office and feeding the media into a frenzy: FAKE!; and 6) Corporations ambushed with Trump Tweets: AMERICA FIRST!.

Given this, my foregone conclusion is that “it’s the economy stupid!” He has ignited animal spirits in both the business and consumer markets of the economy. However, not to take anything away from him, but in all fairness and honesty, the economy was already strong enough to where the Fed is seriously contemplating tightening monetary policy, i.e. higher interest rates. This is not something that occurs within the blinking of an eye. So this leads me to ask if the underlying strength in the economy is due to preexisting conditions, and, if so, then how much longer before we begin to peak.

Of course, the peak could be deferred by POTUS Trump’s proposed $10 trillion infrastructure building program, provided it is allowed by Congress and facilitated by an accommodative Federal Reserve. In the meanwhile, economic momentum prevails with January’s PPI increasing 0.6% month-over-month vs. prior @ 0.3%. The market will get more clarity as Yellen testifies before the Senate Banking Committee @ 10 am ET.

 

ETF Performance Summary

 

RS 1Yr Exchange Traded Fund Last Chg % Chg
   
  Equities
100 DJ-30 Industrials (DIA) 205.17 0.97 0.48%
100 SP-500 (SPY) 233.70 0.93 0.40%
100 Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) 128.53 0.43 0.34%
99 Russell-2k (IWM) 138.76 0.46 0.33%
98 EAFE (EFA) 60.29 -0.09 -0.15%
100 Emerging Mkts (EEM) 38.38 0.04 0.10%
87 Europe FTSE (VGK) 49.66 0.01 0.02%
100 Latin America 40 (ILF) 31.78 0.16 0.51%
100 Brazil (EWZ) 38.98 0.48 1.25%
95 Japan (EWJ) 51.21 -0.37 -0.72%
99 Pacific Ex-Japan (EPP) 43.24 0.00 0.00%
90 FTSE China 25 (FXI) 38.24 -0.01 -0.03%
0 VIX Short-Term Futures (VXX) 16.88 -0.76 -4.31%
   
  Major Equity Sectors
100 Consumer Discretionary (XLY) 86.32 0.49 0.57%
60 Consumer Staples (XLP) 53.63 0.01 0.02%
80 Energy (XLE) 73.66 0.24 0.33%
95 Financials (XLF) 24.33 0.28 1.16%
72 Healthcare (XLV) 72.87 0.57 0.79%
99 Industrials (XLI) 65.41 0.03 0.05%
94 Materials (XLB) 52.52 -0.01 -0.02%
45 Real Estate (XLRE) 31.27 -0.16 -0.51%
100 Technology / Info (VGT) 131.72 0.47 0.36%
75 Telecom (IYZ) 34.25 0.04 0.12%
52 Utilities (XLU) 49.17 -0.36 -0.73%
   
  Bonds & Fixed Income
10 20+ Yr Treasury (TLT) 119.51 -0.87 -0.72%
16 Aggregate Bond Fund (AGG) 108.06 -0.24 -0.22%
44 Treasury Inflation Protection (TIP) 113.75 -0.27 -0.24%
38 Investop Corp Bond (LQD) 117.20 -0.28 -0.24%
100 High Yield Corp Bond (HYG) 87.72 0.06 0.07%
24 Pimco Intermed Muni Bonds (MUNI) 52.63 -0.15 -0.28%
45 High Yield Muni (HYD) 30.19 0.10 0.33%
   
  Currencies
76 US Dollar Bullish (UUP) 26.15 0.06 0.23%
17 Euro Trust (FXE) 102.63 -0.18 -0.18%
19 Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) 84.33 -0.47 -0.55%
   
  Commodities
95 DB Commodity Index (DBC) 15.89 0.02 0.13%
41 Gold (GLD) 116.93 0.13 0.11%
75 US Oil (USO) 11.38 0.06 0.53%
   
  Real Estate
59 DJ Real Estate (IYR) 78.35 -0.44 -0.56%
90 DJ Home Construction (ITB) 29.41 -0.19 -0.64%
41 Residential Real Estate Index (REZ) 61.70 -0.54 -0.87%

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