Risk Appetites Driven By Positive Earnings and Strong Economic Data

Posted on Posted in Views From The Hill
Market Summary and Commentary

The appetite for risk has not been abated and large-cap stocks continue to dominate market leadership as the SP-500 and Nasdaq-100 both made new highs once again. Interest rates for the 10-Year Treasury Note are beginning to reverse to the upside while the U.S. Dollar is preparing to test resistance @ 81.01 (i.e. May-2014 highs) but may need to consolidate before doing so as it is currently overbought.  Gold is oversold but it will take a good dose of fear to goose it into a bullish reversal. Crude Oil is consolidating but also trading in a bearish channel.

SP-500 @ 1987.98 (+0.97 / +0.05%); DJ-30 Industrials @ 17083.80 (-2.83 / -0.02%); Nasdaq-100 @ 3983.19 (-3.00 / -0.08%); Russell-2K @ 1156.26 (-1.88 / -0.16%); VIX @ 11.84 (+0.32 / +2.78%); U.S. Dollar Index @ 80.962 (+0.047 / +0.06%); 10-Year Tsy-Note Yield @ 25.09 (+0.45 / +1.83%); Gold-July-2014 @ 1290.60 (-13.90 / -1.07%); Crude Oil-September-2014 @ 102.07 (-1.05 / -1.02%)  

Although earnings season remains in the spotlight of investor sentiment:

  • Technology stocks Facebook (FB) @ 74.98 ( +3.69 / +5.18%) and Citrix Systems (CTXS) @ 66.82 (+2.72 / +4.24%) crushed earnings estimates after the close of Wednesday’s market and their shares respectively traded 162% and 142% above average volume.
  • Reporting positive earnings before this Thursday’s market open were Health Care components Boston Scientific (BSX) @ 13.26 (+0.24 / +1.84%) and Brystol-Myers Squibb (BMY) @ 49.46 (+0.14 / +0.28%). The Energy sector saw mixed results from Cameron Int’l (CAM) @ 72.44 (+2.87 / + 4.13%) and Diamond Offshore (DO) @ 47.87 (-2.17 / -4.34%).

Macro-economic data waits in the wings to resume center stage:

  • The labor market recovery is ongoing. Jobless Claims contracted @ 284k vs. estimates @ 310k and @ prior @ 303k. The 4-week moving average shaved off 7k with a reading of 302k vs. prior @ 309.25k. Continuing Claims lopped off another -19k.
  • The PMI Manufacturing Index Flash for July-2014 declined slightly but still indicates strength @ 56.3 vs. estimates @ 57.6 and prior @ 57.5.
  • The Housing Market recovery still stubbornly displays volatility. New Home Sales for June-2014 @ 406k were well below estimates @ 475k and prior month @ 442k (shockingly revised from 504k).

And that’s a wrap from Hillbent’s Market Direction…

(See ETF Market Performance Summary tables below)


ETF Market Performance Summary
ETF Equities Close Chg %Chg Vol x 1000 5-Avg Vol % Chg 50-Day Avg Vol % Chg
DJ-30 (DIA) 170.44 -0.12 -0.07% 3,226 -17% -16%
SP-500 (SPY) 198.65 0.01 0.01% 56,950 -25% -30%
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) 97.12 -0.11 -0.11% 24,254 -17% -19%
Russell-2K (IWM) 114.64 -0.23 -0.20% 31,883 -5% -23%
SP-Europe 350 (IEV) 48.11 0.25 0.52% 608 -14% -27%
Europe FTSE Vanguard (VGK) 59.33 0.25 0.42% 2,185 -38% -30%
Emerging Mkts MSCI (EEM) 44.96 0.2 0.45% 33,617 -21% -17%
 
ETF Volatility Close Chg %Chg Vol x 1000 5-Avg Vol % Chg 50-Day Avg Vol % Chg
VIX Short-Term (VXX) 27.99 -0.19 -0.67% 20,350 -31% -25%
 
ETF Sectors Close Chg %Chg Vol x 1000 5-Avg Vol % Chg 50-Day Avg Vol % Chg
Consumer Discretion (XLY) 67.57 0.15 0.22% 3,773 -9% -19%
Consumer Staples (XLP) 44.97 0.12 0.27% 3,450 -44% -39%
Energy (XLE) 100.58 0.09 0.09% 5,585 -22% -31%
Financials (XLF) 23.02 0.05 0.22% 19,920 20% -19%
Healthcare (XLV) 62.06 -0.13 -0.21% 5,733 -8% 5%
Industrials (XLI) 53.93 -0.26 -0.48% 9,272 21% 21%
Basic Materials (XLB) 50.02 -0.06 -0.12% 2,263 -34% -48%
Technology (XLK) 39.77 -0.03 -0.08% 13,098 109% 120%
Telecom (IYZ) 30.45 0.12 0.40% 74 -44% -69%
Utilities (XLU) 42.78 0.13 0.30% 6,040 4% -44%
 
ETF Bonds Close Chg %Chg Vol x 1000 5-Avg Vol % Chg 50-Day Avg Vol % Chg
Aggregate Bonds (AGG) 109.12 -0.34 -0.31% 859 26% -17%
1-3 Year Treasury (SHY) 84.48 -0.03 -0.04% 221 -86% -72%
7-10 Yr Treasury (IEF) 103.5 -0.42 -0.40% 623 33% -78%
20+ Year Treasury (TLT) 114.32 -0.86 -0.75% 7,609 35% 3%
TIPs (TIP) 115.17 -0.21 -0.18% 300 -27% -39%
High Yield Bond (JNK) 41.29 0.01 0.02% 5,627 37% 73%
Iboxx High Yield (HYG) 94.2 0.17 0.18% 3,115 12% 0%
 
ETF Currency/Cash Close Chg %Chg Vol x 1000 5-Avg Vol % Chg 50-Day Avg Vol % Chg
US Dollar Index (UUP) 21.58 0.03 0.14% 219 -86% -71%
Euro Trust (FXE) 132.79 0.01 0.01% 93 -64% -69%
Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) 95.75 -0.24 -0.25% 50 45% -27%
 
ETF Commodities Close Chg %Chg Vol x 1000 5-Avg Vol % Chg 50-Day Avg Vol % Chg
DB Commodity Index (DBC) 25.59 -0.03 -0.12% 1,147 -13% -41%
Gold (GLD) 124.35 -1.27 -1.01% 8,520 72% 34%
US Oil (USO) 37.82 -0.34 -0.89% 3,015 15% 16%
 
ETF Real Estate Close Chg %Chg Vol x 1000 5-Avg Vol % Chg 50-Day Avg Vol % Chg
DJ US Real Estate (IYR) 73.14 -0.19 -0.26% 6,148 -8% -29%
DJ US Home Construct (ITB) 23.38 -0.83 -3.43% 8,540 94% 149%
 

 

 

 

 

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