Views From The Hill

Risk Appetites Driven By Positive Earnings and Strong Economic Data

Market Summary and Commentary

The appetite for risk has not been abated and large-cap stocks continue to dominate market leadership as the SP-500 and Nasdaq-100 both made new highs once again. Interest rates for the 10-Year Treasury Note are beginning to reverse to the upside while the U.S. Dollar is preparing to test resistance @ 81.01 (i.e. May-2014 highs) but may need to consolidate before doing so as it is currently overbought.  Gold is oversold but it will take a good dose of fear to goose it into a bullish reversal. Crude Oil is consolidating but also trading in a bearish channel.

SP-500 @ 1987.98 (+0.97 / +0.05%); DJ-30 Industrials @ 17083.80 (-2.83 / -0.02%); Nasdaq-100 @ 3983.19 (-3.00 / -0.08%); Russell-2K @ 1156.26 (-1.88 / -0.16%); VIX @ 11.84 (+0.32 / +2.78%); U.S. Dollar Index @ 80.962 (+0.047 / +0.06%); 10-Year Tsy-Note Yield @ 25.09 (+0.45 / +1.83%); Gold-July-2014 @ 1290.60 (-13.90 / -1.07%); Crude Oil-September-2014 @ 102.07 (-1.05 / -1.02%)  

Although earnings season remains in the spotlight of investor sentiment:

  • Technology stocks Facebook (FB) @ 74.98 ( +3.69 / +5.18%) and Citrix Systems (CTXS) @ 66.82 (+2.72 / +4.24%) crushed earnings estimates after the close of Wednesday’s market and their shares respectively traded 162% and 142% above average volume.
  • Reporting positive earnings before this Thursday’s market open were Health Care components Boston Scientific (BSX) @ 13.26 (+0.24 / +1.84%) and Brystol-Myers Squibb (BMY) @ 49.46 (+0.14 / +0.28%). The Energy sector saw mixed results from Cameron Int’l (CAM) @ 72.44 (+2.87 / + 4.13%) and Diamond Offshore (DO) @ 47.87 (-2.17 / -4.34%).

Macro-economic data waits in the wings to resume center stage:

  • The labor market recovery is ongoing. Jobless Claims contracted @ 284k vs. estimates @ 310k and @ prior @ 303k. The 4-week moving average shaved off 7k with a reading of 302k vs. prior @ 309.25k. Continuing Claims lopped off another -19k.
  • The PMI Manufacturing Index Flash for July-2014 declined slightly but still indicates strength @ 56.3 vs. estimates @ 57.6 and prior @ 57.5.
  • The Housing Market recovery still stubbornly displays volatility. New Home Sales for June-2014 @ 406k were well below estimates @ 475k and prior month @ 442k (shockingly revised from 504k).

And that’s a wrap from Hillbent’s Market Direction…

(See ETF Market Performance Summary tables below)


ETF Market Performance Summary
ETF Equities Close Chg %Chg Vol x 1000 5-Avg Vol % Chg 50-Day Avg Vol % Chg
DJ-30 (DIA) 170.44 -0.12 -0.07% 3,226 -17% -16%
SP-500 (SPY) 198.65 0.01 0.01% 56,950 -25% -30%
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) 97.12 -0.11 -0.11% 24,254 -17% -19%
Russell-2K (IWM) 114.64 -0.23 -0.20% 31,883 -5% -23%
SP-Europe 350 (IEV) 48.11 0.25 0.52% 608 -14% -27%
Europe FTSE Vanguard (VGK) 59.33 0.25 0.42% 2,185 -38% -30%
Emerging Mkts MSCI (EEM) 44.96 0.2 0.45% 33,617 -21% -17%
 
ETF Volatility Close Chg %Chg Vol x 1000 5-Avg Vol % Chg 50-Day Avg Vol % Chg
VIX Short-Term (VXX) 27.99 -0.19 -0.67% 20,350 -31% -25%
 
ETF Sectors Close Chg %Chg Vol x 1000 5-Avg Vol % Chg 50-Day Avg Vol % Chg
Consumer Discretion (XLY) 67.57 0.15 0.22% 3,773 -9% -19%
Consumer Staples (XLP) 44.97 0.12 0.27% 3,450 -44% -39%
Energy (XLE) 100.58 0.09 0.09% 5,585 -22% -31%
Financials (XLF) 23.02 0.05 0.22% 19,920 20% -19%
Healthcare (XLV) 62.06 -0.13 -0.21% 5,733 -8% 5%
Industrials (XLI) 53.93 -0.26 -0.48% 9,272 21% 21%
Basic Materials (XLB) 50.02 -0.06 -0.12% 2,263 -34% -48%
Technology (XLK) 39.77 -0.03 -0.08% 13,098 109% 120%
Telecom (IYZ) 30.45 0.12 0.40% 74 -44% -69%
Utilities (XLU) 42.78 0.13 0.30% 6,040 4% -44%
 
ETF Bonds Close Chg %Chg Vol x 1000 5-Avg Vol % Chg 50-Day Avg Vol % Chg
Aggregate Bonds (AGG) 109.12 -0.34 -0.31% 859 26% -17%
1-3 Year Treasury (SHY) 84.48 -0.03 -0.04% 221 -86% -72%
7-10 Yr Treasury (IEF) 103.5 -0.42 -0.40% 623 33% -78%
20+ Year Treasury (TLT) 114.32 -0.86 -0.75% 7,609 35% 3%
TIPs (TIP) 115.17 -0.21 -0.18% 300 -27% -39%
High Yield Bond (JNK) 41.29 0.01 0.02% 5,627 37% 73%
Iboxx High Yield (HYG) 94.2 0.17 0.18% 3,115 12% 0%
 
ETF Currency/Cash Close Chg %Chg Vol x 1000 5-Avg Vol % Chg 50-Day Avg Vol % Chg
US Dollar Index (UUP) 21.58 0.03 0.14% 219 -86% -71%
Euro Trust (FXE) 132.79 0.01 0.01% 93 -64% -69%
Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) 95.75 -0.24 -0.25% 50 45% -27%
 
ETF Commodities Close Chg %Chg Vol x 1000 5-Avg Vol % Chg 50-Day Avg Vol % Chg
DB Commodity Index (DBC) 25.59 -0.03 -0.12% 1,147 -13% -41%
Gold (GLD) 124.35 -1.27 -1.01% 8,520 72% 34%
US Oil (USO) 37.82 -0.34 -0.89% 3,015 15% 16%
 
ETF Real Estate Close Chg %Chg Vol x 1000 5-Avg Vol % Chg 50-Day Avg Vol % Chg
DJ US Real Estate (IYR) 73.14 -0.19 -0.26% 6,148 -8% -29%
DJ US Home Construct (ITB) 23.38 -0.83 -3.43% 8,540 94% 149%
 

 

 

 

 

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