Treasury Bonds Say “So What?” To Yellen’s Warning On Low Interest Rates

Posted on Posted in Bond Markets

Today, Chairperson Janet Yellen forewarned that the low long term interest rates currentlly being enjoyed by the market could jump once the Federal Reserve begins raising interest rates. The bond market more or less said “So what?” to her comments and finished in positive territory when treasuries tend to reflexively ┬áretreat on such remarks. Below we have two charts in two different time frames telling two different stories (See charts and comments below):

 

The daily chart shows the 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) showing some pluck and finding support at previous levels from which bonds catapulted into a rather extended rally.

tlt-daily-may-7-2015

However, the weekly chart also showing bonds at a key support level indicates a violation of the weekly trend and its bullish channel, which I interpret as an ill omen for future price declines.

tlt-weekly-may-7-2015

 

May I suggest caution with bonds and, no matter how tempted you might be to buy the dips, unless you have specific asset allocation objectives to fulfill? It is possible that we could very well experience another recession, but if we do, the Fed will will have very little room to maneuver with rates being already at historically unprecendented lows or the political currency to engage in further QE (quantitave easing) as America is still disgorging itself from debt and trying to trim its waistline of poltical pork and fiscal waste.

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