- The secular bear market for the US Dollar Index concluded towards the end of 3Q-2015. At this juncture, a new bullish trend was initiated.
- Since the 2Q-2015 to present date, the dollar has been consolidating and confronted with the challenge of surmounting a triple-top.
- If it breaks above this level, which it probably will, given expectations for the Fed to normalize monetary policy (i.e. raise interest rates) while other G8 central banks lag and a stable economic environment providing a foundation upon which President-elect Donald Trump may launch fiscal and regulatory stimulus policies, the dollar could trade to 102 or even 110 resistance levels.
- Of course, an occurrence of the above scenario would have some ripple effects upon other capital markets, not to mention currencies, which I shall be discussing in future publications of View From the Hill’s ETF Capital Markets reports.
- In summary and until further notice, my long-term bias towards the US Dollar remains bullish.
(see 20-year monthly chart below for technical analysis of US Dollar Index secular trend)