Views From The Hill

View From The Hill: April-27-2015

Commentary & Performance Summary

In the Equities, the SP-500 (SPY) and Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) maintain their uptrends but could be showing early signs of bearish reversal patterns. If you regard the Russell-2000 (IWM) as the canary in the coal mine, then one should note that the small-cap proxy was downgraded from neutral to bearish for its short-term trend.

In giving consideration to the above, Treasury Bonds (TLT) have now delivered three consecutive sessions of positive performance. Intermarket analysis of this asset class versus equities suggests that risk appetites may be subsiding and are beginning to favor safety. The short-term trend for the 20-Year+ Treasury ETF was upgraded from bearish to neutral.

The trend for Volatility (VXX) remains bearish, but it is worth noting that it did make a new 3-day high after bottoming to a new 3-day low on almost twice the amount of last Friday’s trading volume.

In the Currency Markets, the intermediate trend for the US Dollar (UUP) was downgraded from neutral to bearish. The Euro (FXE) and Japanese Yen (FXY) have now outperformed the dollar in 4 out of the last 5 trading sessions.

The ETF Commodity Tracking Index (DBC) is still indicating a bullish bias. Gold (GLD) appears to be establishing a bullish reversal pattern and closed above its 13-day moving average. Oil (USO) is in a consolidation phase and therefore has been downgraded to neutral for the short-term.

The technical outlook for Real Estate assets (IYR and ITB) remains bearish to neutral and weak at best.

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