View From the Hill: Bipolar Fed Rattles Markets Once Again

Posted on Posted in Views From The Hill

By J Clinton Hill, Capital Markets Strategist @ Hillbent.com

Market Condition: August 26, 2016

bulls-and-bears4In the first hour of trading, stocks advanced on Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s suggestion of “gradual” rate increases. However, Stanley Fischer, Fed Vice Chairman,  expressed things quite differently by reiterating the possibility of a rate hike in September. With not much in the way of economic data, the bipolar message from Jackson Hole sent the market’s large-cap indexes (S&P 500, Dow Jones 30 Industrials, and Nasdaq 100) descending to 2-week lows before staging a later intraday rally to pare most losses as the prospect of a stronger US Dollar may not bode well for multi-national companies. Although it finished in slightly negative territory, the Russell 2000 proved more resilient and finished the week flat but in positive territory.

 

Index LAST 1 Day % 5 Day % YTD %
DOW Industrials 18395.40 -0.29% -0.85% 5.57%
S&P 500  2169.04 -0.16% -0.68% 6.12%
Nasdaq 100 4783.69 0.17% -0.47% 4.15%
Russell 2000 1238.03 -16.00% 0.10% 8.99%

 


Market Moving Events

Bullish

  • n/a

Bearish

  • n/a

Neutral

  • North America / USA / Economic Growth: 2nd Quarter GDP in 2016 grew 1.1%, which was on par with expectations but also down from the previous quarter @ 1.2%.
  • North America / USA / Consumer: Consumer Sentiment for August-2016 was @ 89.8, which was slightly under consensus @ 90.7 and previous readings @ 90.4.

ETF Market Performance: date

No comments this evening. (Please see our exchange traded fund summary below for a capital markets performance analysis.)

 

1YR RS Equities Close % Chg 50D-MA 200D-MA 50-v-200
 Equities
91 DJ-30 Industrials (DIA) 183.82 -0.30% 0.68% 4.91% 4.21%
94 SP-500 (SPY) 217.29 -0.19% 1.41% 5.86% 4.38%
95 Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) 116.78 0.15% 3.64% 7.26% 3.49%
95 Russell-2k (IWM) 123.06 -0.20% 3.35% 9.92% 6.36%
66 EAFE (EFA) 58.37 -0.60% 2.08% 2.08% 0.00%
88 Emerging Mkts (EEM) 36.76 -0.86% 3.06% 10.46% 7.18%
58 Europe FTSE (VGK) 48.60 -0.55% 2.25% 0.79% -1.43%
86 Latin America 40 (ILF) 28.10 -1.44% 2.82% 16.26% 13.07%
88 Brazil (EWZ) 32.98 -1.11% 3.45% 27.04% 22.80%
83 Japan (EWJ) 12.22 -0.73% 2.52% 4.36% 1.79%
91 Pacific Ex-Japan (EPP) 41.37 -0.96% 1.90% 7.32% 5.32%
71 FTSE China 25 (FXI) 36.93 -0.43% 4.38% 9.26% 4.67%
2 VIX Short-Term Futures (VXX) 37.11 0.32% -19.06% -47.72% -35.40%
Bonds / Fixed Income
79 20+ Yr Treasury (TLT) 138.36 -0.58% -0.47% 6.08% 6.58%
84 Aggregate Bond Fund (AGG) 112.34 -0.16% -0.10% 1.76% 1.86%
78 Treasury Inflation Protection (TIP) 115.70 -0.39% -0.40% 2.08% 2.49%
91 Investop Corp Bond (LQD) 123.40 -0.32% 0.33% 4.37% 4.03%
96 High Yield Corp Bond (HYG) 86.56 -0.12% 1.44% 5.24% 3.74%
Currencies
33 US Dollar Bullish (UUP) 24.68 0.73% -0.32% -1.28% -0.96%
59 Euro Trust (FXE) 109.01 -0.79% 0.33% 0.51% 0.18%
90 Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) 94.88 -1.24% 0.91% 8.93% 7.94%
Commodities
76 DB Commodity Index (DBC) 14.87 -0.34% 0.47% 7.06% 6.55%
84 Gold (GLD) 126.05 -0.14% -0.87% 8.10% 9.05%
38 US Oil (USO) 10.95 0.00% 1.67% 2.82% 1.13%
Real Estate
80 DJ Real Estate (IYR) 81.75 -0.93% -1.36% 6.18% 7.65%
87 DJ Home Construction (ITB) 28.88 -1.06% 0.98% 7.68% 6.64%
74 Residential Real Estate Index (REZ) 65.58 -1.22% -2.35% 2.71% 5.18%
Major Equity Sectors
90 Consumer Discretionary (XLY) 80.94 -0.28% 0.68% 3.68% 2.97%
83 Consumer Staples (XLP) 54.31 -0.51% -0.82% 3.96% 4.82%
88 Energy (XLE) 69.38 -0.34% 1.85% 8.95% 6.97%
84 Financials (XLF) 24.11 0.12% 3.03% 5.05% 1.96%
78 Healthcare (XLV) 73.07 0.38% -0.57% 3.90% 4.49%
95 Industrials (XLI) 58.66 -0.29% 1.84% 7.32% 5.38%
94 Materials (XLB) 48.73 -0.57% 1.56% 8.29% 6.62%
97 Technology / Info (VGT) 117.90 0.09% 4.63% 9.52% 4.67%
70 Telecom (IYZ) 31.85 -0.50% -3.92% 4.63% 8.90%
68 Utilities (XLU) 49.15 -2.07% -4.21% 3.19% 7.73%

 

 

Signing off @ Hillbent…

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