View From The Hill: December-14-2015

Posted on Posted in Views From The Hill

The Framework of the Fed…

bulls-and-bears4

My more recent commentary mentioned how difficult it was to find a scapegoat for the market’s persistent decline. The drop in Crude Oil prices has been the financial media’s whipping boy lately, so when oil futures reversed their downward slide, the stock market responded in like manner, albeit synapse delayed .

Seriously? If this market is taking its cues from a recovery in oil prices, then we might encounter some disappointment down the road. The fundamentals have not drastically changed for energy and the demand is simply not there to meet the supply. So what’s going to happen if the rally in oil fades? Something to think about…

This week we have the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy decision, which warrants more concern. A rate increase is a high probability, but what is not certain is the language that will be used to frame it. It’s not always about the picture or the painting folks. Never underestimate the influence of good framework, especially if it’s coming from the Fed.

 


Performance Summary

*Trends: ST = short-term; MT = Intermediate-term; LT = long-term

vfth-performance-12-14-2015
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Market Condition

The market obviously caught a bid today as it fell below 2000 and made another low,  but managed to close in the upper part of its trading range. The trends and momentum both remain bearish. Resistance at the 55-day or widely followed 50-day moving average will dictate the market direction. Unless, we climb back over these levels, don’t expect more than a dead-cat bounce.

Hillbent on the Market Direction…

 

Daily Chart Technical Analysis
sp500-daily-12-14-2015
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Market Breadth
Advancers 271 Decliners 227
New 5-day highs 18 New 5-day lows 331
New 52-week highs 2 New 52-week lows 53
Bullish reversals 145 Bearish reversals 31

 

Market Momentum
% > 20 M.A. % > 50 M.A. % > 100 M.A. % > 200 M.A.
20% 30%
38%
37%
↑ = positive momentum; ↓ = negative momentum; and ↔ = neutral momentum

 


Volume Radar Alerts

  • Vol % = volume percentage greater than average volume
  • SIR = short interest ratio or days to cover
volume-radar-12-14-2015
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Disclaimer

Hillbent does not provide individualized market advice. The information we publish regards securities in which we believe our readers may be interested and our reports reflect our sincere opinions. Nevertheless, they are not intended to be personalized recommendations to buy, hold, or sell securities. Investments in the securities markets, and especially in options, are speculative and involve substantial risk. Each individual investor should determine their respective appropriate level of risk. It is recommended that you seek personal advice from your professional investment advisor and conduct further independent due diligence research before acting on information published in any of our reports. Most of our information is derived directly from information published by the companies on which we report and/or from other sources we deem to be reliable, without our independent verification. Therefore, we cannot assure the completeness or accuracy of information contained within these reports and we do not in any way warrant or guarantee the success of any action which you take in reliance on our statements. Hillbent.com, Inc. or its affiliates may own positions in the equities mentioned in our reports. We do not receive any compensation from any of the companies covered in our reports.

 

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