Views From The Hill

View From The Hill: December-8-2015

Why Not Blame It on Transports Instead of Energy Prices?


Typically, it is the winners that lead the market, which is not to say that losers have no influence. In the financial media, many are blaming lower oil prices for the selling of equities. While this may be partially true, I say take a closer look at the DJ-20 Transportation stocks. This is a group that tends to benefit from cheaper energy prices, but their performance of lately would suggest otherwise. 

The VIX broke out into a new uptrend today, but I would prefer to see it trade a little higher before jumping on the bandwagon. If you are bearish on stocks, Volatility is definitely to which you can arrive late and still enjoy some upside from the downside of stocks.

In the bond market, Treasury rates are consolidating after a short term correction and therefore bond prices are trading in a neutral pattern.

In commodities, gold resumed its downtrend. So much for the dead cat bounce. Like oil, the price chart remains bearish.

In currencies, the U.S. Dollar may be in correction mode, but this appears to be almost over. as it is finding support near Friday’s closing levels.

There are not too many places to hide in this market and real estate has not been one of them as of lately. In lieu of this, the overall long-term trends for the DJ Home Construction  and DJ Real Estate remain solidly bullish (until further notice).



Performance Summary

*Trends: ST = short-term; MT = Intermediate-term; LT = long-term

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Market Condition

The volatility and tug of war between bulls and bears continues. Right now the bears have the edge, but as long as the SP-500 maintains key support at 2040, the bulls are still in the game. Momentum is gyrating, this time favoring the down side.

Hillbent for the Market Direction…


Daily Chart Technical Analysis
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Market Breadth
Advancers 141 Decliners 361
New 5-day highs 51 New 5-day lows 206
New 52-week highs 21 New 52-week lows 37
Bullish reversals 93 Bearish reversals 32


Market Momentum
% > 20 M.A. % > 50 M.A. % > 100 M.A. % > 200 M.A.
41% ↓ 52% ↓
47% ↓
45% ↓
↑ = positive momentum; ↓ = negative momentum; and ↔ = neutral momentum


Volume Radar Alerts

  • Vol % = volume percentage greater than average volume
  • SIR = short interest ratio or days to cover
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