Views From The Hill

View From The Hill: June-2-2016

Market Condition Analysis

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No comments this evening…. Tomorrow will be an important day for both investors and traders as the eagerly awaited Non-Farm Payrolls report for May-2016 will be released and shed some clues on the data dependent Federal Reserve’s bias towards raising interest rates.


(See list of market moving events and asset class performance table below)


Market Moving Events


  • USA / Jobless Claims: For the week of May-28th-2016, New Claims were in line with expectations @ 167k and just below previous @ 168k. The 4-week moving average dropped to 276.5k vs. prior @ 278.5k. Continuing Claims were up 12k to 2.172m vs. the 4-week moving average which was also up 12k @ 2.163mm.
  • USA / Employment: The ADP Employment report for May-2016, while it is only a pre-cursor to tomorrow’s much awaited Employment Situation report, offered some insight on how the labor market is trending. Private payrolls were @ 173k vs. estimates @ 175k and prior revised @ 165k.
  • USA /EIA Petroleum Status: Crude oil inventories declined -1.4mm bbl to Gasoline supplies were down -1.2mm bbl and Distillates were down -1.3mm bbl. As the market enters the summer season, gasoline demand has increased 4% vs. last year
  • Great Britain / PMI Construction: The pace of construction continues to expand, although at a slower rate. Readings for May-2016 were @ 51.2 vs. estimates @ 52.0 and prior @ 52.0.
  • Europe / ECB Announcement : As expected, ECB Chief Draghi kept interest rates unchanged, despite not being anywhere close to the central bank’s target inflation rate. Essentially, he is asking the EU and the markets to be patient and give measures more time to show signs of improvement, along with implementation of March’s stimulus package, which initiate the purchase of assets on June-8th.
  • China / General Services PMI: to be released later
  • Japan / PMI Composite: to be released later
  • Commodities / Energy / OPEC Meeting: As somewhat anticipated, OPEC did not reach an agreement on oil production and took a laissez-faire approach as it tests the market’s supply-demand fundamentals. With oil prices having increased @ +80% from their lows, pressure for capped quotas has been temporarily removed. The exit of some shale producers in the US due to collapsing prices may have also been a contributing factor to the cartel’s decision to not make a decision.


ETF Capital Markets Performance Summary

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