Views From The Hill

View From The Hill: May-14-2015


Equities: The SP-500 (SPY) and Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) are both testing key resistance levels and, if they successfully pass, we could see a continuation move to new record highs. Small cap stocks continue to recover as the Russell-2000  (IWM) has clearly established a new short-term uptrend.

Volatility: The VIX (VXX) has finally broken the support that earned it a neutral rating. As of today, it is downgraded to short-term bearish.

Bonds: The bear market in bonds or the 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) has now arrived at another support level which I anticipate it to test over the next few days. We could see a temporary relief rally to the upside, but the overall picture still remains bearish.

Currencies: U.S Dollar (UUP) weakness persists while the Euro (FXE) rallies and prepares to test the February-2015 highs. Although the Yen (FXY) has attempted to initiate a new uptrend, it remains range bound between $80.70 and $81.80.

Commodities: The DB Commodity Index (DBC) and Crude Oil (USO) are consolidating for now. Gold (GC) is definitely in a rally mode and making new short-term highs. It is slightly overbought, which makes new buyers vulnerable to a sharp pull-back.

Real Estate: The Dow Jones Real Estate Index (IYR) and Hombuilders Index (ITB) appear to have established support after their recent corrections.


ETF Capital Markets Performance Summary



Market Moving Events


  • Employment / USA: The Jobless Claims report for May-9-2015 indicates a healthy labor market as new claims filed were @ 264k vs. prior @ 265k and consensus @ 276k. Filings are near 15-year lows and have been at these levels for 3 consecutive weeks now. Continuing claims @ 2.229mm also reflect 15-year lows
  • Inflation / USA: The PPI (producer price index) for April-2015 showed inflation is nowhere to be found as the monthly change reflected -0.4% vs. consensus @ 0.2% and prior revised @ 0.2%. Annually, prices dipped -1.4% vs. prior @ -0.8%. The conclusion is that the Fed Reserve inflation hawks will need more data to press their case for interest rate increases.


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