Views From The Hill

View From The Hill: May-21-2015

Commentary

Equities: The SP-500 (2,130.82 /+4.97 /+0.23%), DJ-30 Industrials (18,285.74 / +0.34 / +0.00%) and Russell-2000 (1256.74 / +1.08 / +0.09%) are beginning to consolidate recent gains. The Nasdaq-100 (4529.47 / +24.17 / +0.54%) hit a new 18-day high and is at least another 20 points away from any significant resistance.

Volatility: It was another day in the gutter for the VIX (12.11 / -0.77 / -5.98%). Such complacency is disturbing if prolonged. Be careful…

Bonds: Treasuries got a lift from falling interest rates: 10-Yr (21.85 / -0.66 / -2.93%) and 30-Yr (29.78 / -0.75 /-2.46%).

Currencies: June-2015 U.S. Dollar Index (95.329 / -0.19%); June-2015 Euro FX (1.11340 / +0.00140 / +0.13%); June-2015 Japanese Yen (0.82690 / +0.00140 / +017%) is attempting to establish suport at March-2015 lows.

Commodities: July-2015 Crude Oil (60.72 / +1.74 / +2.95%) not only made a bullish reversal, but also recovered all of Tuesday’s losses.  Today was an indecisive day in June-2015 Gold (1,204.10 / -4.60 / -0.38%) as it tries to establish a new support level in what is an extremely choppy market. Good luck!

Real Estate: The rally and in the Dow Jones Real Estate Index (296.92 / -2.22 / -0.74%) appears to be over with today’s new 5-day low. The Home Construction Index (556.49 / -2.85 / -0.51%) took a consolidation rest today.

ETF Capital Markets Performance Summary

daily-mkt-summary_5-21-2015
May-21-2015

Market Moving Events

Bullish

  • Employment / USA:  Jobless Claims for the week of May-16-2015 edged up 10k to 274k vs. consensus @ 270k and prior revised @ 264k. With claims at the lowest level in 15 years, the report is overall positive for the economy. The 4-week moving average @ 266.25k was better than last week’s 271.75k. Continuing claims also improved to 2.211mm, along with its 4-week moving average @ 2.23mm.
  • Manufacturing / USA: The PMI Manufacturing Index Flash report for May-2015 contracted slightly but still remains strong @ 53.8 vs. consensus @ 54.6 and prior @ 54.2.
  • Economic Sentiment / USA: The Leading Indicators index for April-2015 jumped to 0.7% vs. consensus @ 0.3% and prior revised @ 0.4%.
  • Manufacturing / Japan: The PMI report for April-2015 indicates Japan has returned to positive growth with a reading @ 50.9 vs. prior @ 49.7.
  • Central Banks / EU: The ECB Minutes for April-15-2015 revealed that the central bank sees some signs of stronger economic growth and the containment of deflation. It’s economic bias slants towards negative, mainly due to the situation in Greece and the failure of some of its members to institute any meaningful economic reforms. This should give plenty of support for its QE program which is currently clocking @ E60bn/month.
  • Economic Growth / Eurozone: Europe’s PMI report for May-2015 suggests that economic activity is not robust, but nevertheless still experiencing positive growth: Composite @ 53.4 vs. consensus @ 53.7 and prior @ 53.5; Manufacturing @ 52.3 vs. consensus @ 52.1 and prior @ 51.9; and Services @ 53.3 vs. consensus @ 54.0 and prior @ 53.7.

Bearish

  • Residential Real Estate / USA: While I wouldn’t label the Existing Home Sales for April-2015 as  a doomsday forecast, it  did decline to 5.04mm vs. consensus @ 5.22mm and prior revised @ 5.21mm. This reflected a monthly change @ -3.3% vs. consensus @ 6.5% and prior @ 6.1% and an annualized change of +6.1% vs. prior @ 10.4%.
  • Manufacturing / China: The PMI Flash Manufacturing report for May-2015 remains below growth levels @ 49.1 vs. prior @ 49.2.
  • Manufacturing / UK: Britain’s CBI Industrial Trends survey for May-2015 reported -5 vs. consensus @ 3 and prior @ 1.

Neutral

  • Business Sentiment: The Philly Fed Business Outlook for May 2015 @ 6.7 was less than consensus @ 8.0 and prior @ 7.5.
  • Economic Growth / Germany: The May-2015 PMI report indicates an expanding but decelerating economy in Germany: Composite @ 52.8 vs. prior @ 54.2; Manufacturing @ 51.4 vs. consensus @ 52.3 and prior @ 51.9; and Services @ 52.9 vs. consensus @ 54.0 and prior @ 54.4.
  • Economic Growth / France: The May-2015 PMI report delivered mixed results. Manufacturing was under 50 and therefore still contracting @ 49.3 vs. consensus @ 48.5 and prior @ 48.4. Services ticked up to 51.6 vs. consensus @ 51.9 and prior @ 50.8. The Composite reading was just slightly above the 50 level for growth @ 51.0 vs. prior @ 50.2.

 

 

 

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