Views From The Hill

View From The Hill: November-16-2015

Stocks Rally In “Zero-Some Game”

bulls-and-bears4(Before I begin this evening’s commentary, I wish to send out prayerful thoughts and healing intentions to all of the victims and their families, friends and loved ones who were impacted by the terrorist attacks which occurred last weekend in Paris.) And now on to the daily market commentary…

Equities may have held center stage today on Wall Street as they staged a strong reversal rally, but the real story in the capital markets is the relatively strong performance of residential real estate, treasury interest rates and the U.S. Dollar over the last 12 months, in case you haven’t noticed any patterns. On the flip side, commodity prices have been beaten down with ugly sticks from Yellen’s hawkish threats, ECB dovish monetary policies, and stagnant growth out of Asia (China and Japan). I’m not trying to player hate and we should all realize that the market is a “zero-some game”.   I just felt the above needed to be acknowledged in lieu of all the noise concerning today’s stock market rally.

The economic calendar was light today and not exactly all that bright either.  The Empire State Manufacturing Survey for November-2015 came in @ -10.74% vs consensus @ -5.0% and prior @ -11.36%. In this market, weak is the new strong if you’re concerned about rate hikes.

No further comments…


Performance Summary


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  • Trends: ST = short-term; MT = Intermediate-term; LT = long-term


Market Condition

Well, let’s just say that the morale improved today. A couple technical conditions noteworthy of mention are the increased breadth of stocks trading above 50-day moving averages and today’s bullish engulfing candlestick pattern.  Up until today, the bearish correction had retraced 38.2% of the SP-500’s September-29th low to November-3rd high. However, the technical wall of worry that concerns me most is the resistance of the previous bullish channel. Getting a move like today in an oversold market is within the norm of Wall Street’s randomness. Some consolidation and retesting of today’s lows before the week is over would be preferable vs. the house of cards volatility  which is not conducive to sustainable investor confidence.

Signing off at Hillbent for the Market Direction…


Daily Chart Technical Analysis
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Market Breadth
Advancers 466 Decliners 38
New 5-day highs 42 New 5-day lows 202
New 52-week highs 4 New 52-week lows 17
Bullish reversals 199 Bearish reversals 0


Market Momentum
% > 20 M.A. % > 50 M.A. % > 100 M.A. % > 200 M.A.
62% ↑
  • ↑ = positive momentum; ↓ = negative momentum; and ↔ = neutral momentum


Volume Radar Alerts


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  • Vol % = volume percentage greater than average volume
  • SIR = short interest ratio or days to cover


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