Views From The Hill

View From The Hill: November-3-2015

Commentary and Performance

bulls-and-bears4Even though there was not much data to sway the markets, price action among the various asset classes was most noteworthy. For example, the long bond finally grabbed the 3-handle to send treasury rates back above 3%. Another oddity was the performance of the VIX, which easily outperformed equities despite their positive gains.  However, most impressive was today’s price breakout in crude oil, which rose to a new 15-day high. And now, on to our market performance summary…

The SP-500 closed @ 2109.79 (+5.74 / +0.27%). The Nasdaq-100 ended @ 4719.05 (+15.13 / +0.32%) and the Rusell-2000 finished @ 1191.58 (+5.49 / +0.46%).

Rarely does it happen, but volatility and equities both shared love from investors. The VIX closed @ 14.54 (+0.39 / +2.76%).

February-2015 is looking more and more like a decisive bottom for Treasury rates which are gradually trending upward with higher lows whenever there is a correction. The 10-Yr closed @ 22.20 (+0.33 / +1.51%) and the 30-Yr ended @ 30.01 (+0.44 / +1.49%).

If interest rates are rising, then the US Dollar Index must participate eventually by default and it did by moving upward @ 97.23 (+0.31 / +0.32%).

Gold is rushing to break 1100 and could do so before the week is over. Today it sold off for a 3rd consecutive trading session to end @ 1117.20 (-18.70 / -1.65%). WTI Crude Oil out-slicked the energy bears again with another strong performance, this time closing  @ 47.68 (+1.54 / +3.34%).

After yesterday’s price surge, the Dow Jones Real Estate Index took a well deserved rest @ 298.76 (-2.76 / -0.92%) while the Dow Jones Home Construction Index unsuccessfully challenged its 22-day moving average again before settling  @ 582.73 (+0.34 / +0.06%).



Daily Chart Analysis

It has been two consecutive days now that the SP-500 has closed within the range of the previously violated bullish channel. The implication is bullish but the market is also beginning to hit some significant walls of resistance and will be tested. It is overbought, but one should not fight the trend, even if it is overextended and hyperbolic.

Stay Hillbent for the Market Direction…


Click to enlarge



Market Breadth

  • Advancers (1630) vs. Decliners (1258).
  • New 5-day highs (1256) vs. New 5-day lows (250)
  • New 52-week highs (158) vs. new 52-week lows (45)
  • Bullish reversals (212) vs. Bearish reversals (431)



Volume Radar Alerts

Stock prices increasing on high volume
  • Synchrony Financial (SYF) @ 32.44 (+3.54%) on 595% volume surge
  • Activision Blizzard Inc. (ATVI) @ 35.82 (+3.62%) on 376% volume surge
  • Cabot Corp (CBT) @ 40.79 (+13.72%) on 243% volume surge
  • Aarons Inc (AAN) @ 26.07 (+2.68%) on 240% volume surge
  • Cobalt Int’l Energy Inc (CIE) @ 8.72 (+10.24%) on 184% volume surge
Stock prices declining on high volume
  • Fidelity National Information Services Inc (FIS) @ 64.47 (-12.29%) on 524% volume surge
  • Avis Budget Grp Inc (CAR) @ 46.35 (-11.38%) on 480% volume surge
  • Kennametal Inc (KMT) @ 27.82 (-3.30%) on 390% volume surge
  • Targa Resources Corp (TRGP) @ 50.88 (-12.59%) on 381% volume surge
  • Martin Marietta Materials Inc (MLM) @ 142.11 (-8.48%) on 356% volume surge



Market Moving Events


  • Economy / Consumer / USA: The latest Motor Vehicle Sales report for October-2015 matched previous results @ 18.2mm for a 12-year high and exceeded consensus estimates @ 17.7mm. Domestic Sales were also robust @ 14.5mm vs. consensus @ 14.1mm and prior @ 14.7mm.
  • Economy / Real Estate / UK: October-2015 was another solid month for construction in the UK as the PMI Construction Index came in @ 58.8 vs. consensus @ 58.8 and prior @ 59.9.


  • Economy / Manufacturing / USA: Factory Orders in September-2015 declined for the 11th time in 14 months as the indicator contracted month-over-month @ -1.0% vs. consensus @ -0.9% and prior revised @ -2.1%.


  • N/A




Hillbent does not provide individualized market advice. The information we publish regards securities in which we believe our readers may be interested and our reports reflect our sincere opinions. Nevertheless, they are not intended to be personalized recommendations to buy, hold, or sell securities. Investments in the securities markets, and especially in options, are speculative and involve substantial risk. Each individual investor should determine their respective appropriate level of risk. It is recommended that you seek personal advice from your professional investment advisor and conduct further independent due diligence research before acting on information published in any of our reports. Most of our information is derived directly from information published by the companies on which we report and/or from other sources we deem to be reliable, without our independent verification. Therefore, we cannot assure the completeness or accuracy of information contained within these reports and we do not in any way warrant or guarantee the success of any action which you take in reliance on our statements., Inc. or its affiliates may own positions in the equities mentioned in our reports. We do not receive any compensation from any of the companies covered in our reports.


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