Views From The Hill

View From The Hill: November-5-2015

Commentary and Performance

bulls-and-bears4Today’s price action belies confusion. It looks like equities have adopted a “wait until December and see” approach when Chair Yellen makes a decision to hike or defer. At this juncture, it’s all data dependent and no one is going to try to second-guess the Fed unless we get some extreme anomalies in the economic data trends. Right now, the only markets that are really taking heed of the Fed’s pre-warning are bonds and precious metals. Oil is falling against a stronger dollar and mainly due to a lack of demand. Real Estate, another asset class that tends to perform well during inflationary periods, is also guilty of complacency.

The SP-500 closed @ 2099.93 (-2.38 / -0.11%) and the Nasdaq-100 finished @ 4702.90 (-14.65 / -0.31%). Showing a bit of pluck were small cap stocks with the Rusell-2000 @ 1190.69 (+0.31 / +0.03%).

The VIX retreated @ 15.05 (-0.46 / -2.97%).

Money continues to flow out of bonds as Treasury rates climb upward. The 10-Yr closed @ 22.45 (+0.15 / +0.67%) and the 30-Yr @ 30.13 (+0.19 / +0.63%).

The US Dollar Index got high today with a little help from its central banker friends, Japan and England, neither of whom has the inclination to raise rates or decrease their QE activity. The dollar closed @ 97.97 (+0.10 / +0.10%).

Gold closed lower for its 7th consecutive day @ 1103.00 (-3.20 / -0.29%). WTI Crude Oil held support exactly at its 55-day moving average @ 45.39 (-0.93 / -2.01%).

The Dow Jones Real Estate Index finished in slightly positive territory @ 298.07 (+0.72 / +0.24%). The Dow Jones Home Construction Index held the support of its short-term uptrend but distanced itself further below its 22 and 55 day moving averages to close @ 573.41 (-6.74 / -1.16%).

 


Daily Chart Analysis

It appears momentum has met inertia since the last two trading sessions. As long the benchmark index remains within the channel, the bulls are okay. If it breaks, then the SP-500 could easily drop a quick 40-50 points or even test the 2000 to 2015 range. Time and perhaps tomorrow’s employment report will give us the answer to the market direction heading into the weekend.

Signing off at Hillbent…

 

sp500-daily-11-4-2015
Click to enlarge

 


Market Breadth

  • Advancers (1498) vs. Decliners (1374).
  • New 5-day highs (802) vs. New 5-day lows (503)
  • New 52-week highs (249) vs. new 52-week lows (117)
  • Bullish reversals (472) vs. Bearish reversals (306)

 


Volume Radar Alerts

 

Stocks prices increasing on high volume
Company Price % Chg Vol Surge %
GoDaddy Inc. (GDDY) 32.41 +18.16% 478%
Bruker Corp (BRKR) 20.39 +4.86% 467%
 Sprouts Farmers Market Inc. (SFM)  23.01  +15.74%  368%
 Ralph Lauren Corp (RL) 130.50 +14.91%  364%
 Expedia Inc (EXPE) 137.31 +2.34%  362%
 Stock prices declining on high volume
Company Price % Chg Vol Surge %
FireEye Inc (FEYE) 22.46 -22.87%  643%
Alere Inc (ALR) 42.43 -9.34% 610%
Bluebird Bio Inc (BLUE) 70.36 -21.95% 604%
SBA Communications Corp (SBAC) 109.75 -6.70% 547%
Royal Gold Inc (RGLD) 40.26 -14.27% 476%

Market Moving Events

Bullish

  • Real Estate / Residential / UK: Britain’s Halifax HPI (home price index) for October-2015 increased monthly @ 1.1% vs. consensus @ 0.6% and prior @ -0.9%. Annually, prices climbed 9.7% vs. consensus @ 9.5% and prior @ 8.6%.
  • Central Banks / Monetary Policy / UK: Great Britain announced no changes to its current interest rates @ 0.5% or its QE policy @ 375n Sterling.

Bearish

  • Economy / Manufacturing / Europe: Manufacturer’s Orders for Germany during September-2015 declined month-over-month @ -1.7% vs. consensus @ 0.9% and prior @ -1.8%. Annually, they contracted -0.9% vs. consensus @ 1.5% and prior @ 2.2%.
  • Economy / Productivity / USA: During Q3-2015, Productivity contracted to 1.6% vs. prior revised @ 3.5% and consensus @ 0.1%. Costs actually rose to 1.4% vs. prior revised @ -1.8% and consensus @ 2.2%.

Neutral

  • Economy / Employment / USA: Unemployment Claims remain at very low levels despite today’s report which reflected a 16k rise. Actual claims were 276k vs. consensus @ 262k and prior @ 260k. The 4-week moving average also moved up @ 262.75k vs. prior @ 259.25k. Continuing Claims also increased 17k to 2.163mm.
  • Economy / Consumer / Europe: Retail Sales in the EU during September-2015 disappointed on a monthly basis @ -0.1% vs. consensus @ 0.2% and prior @ 0.0%. Annually, they were @ 2.9% vs. consensus @ 3.0% and prior revised @ 2.2%.

 


Notable Earnings

 

Pre-Market (Nov-5-2015)
Company Actual Estimates
N/A N/A N/A
After-Market (Nov-5-2015)
Company Actual Estimates
N/A N/A N/A

 


Disclaimer

Hillbent does not provide individualized market advice. The information we publish regards securities in which we believe our readers may be interested and our reports reflect our sincere opinions. Nevertheless, they are not intended to be personalized recommendations to buy, hold, or sell securities. Investments in the securities markets, and especially in options, are speculative and involve substantial risk. Each individual investor should determine their respective appropriate level of risk. It is recommended that you seek personal advice from your professional investment advisor and conduct further independent due diligence research before acting on information published in any of our reports. Most of our information is derived directly from information published by the companies on which we report and/or from other sources we deem to be reliable, without our independent verification. Therefore, we cannot assure the completeness or accuracy of information contained within these reports and we do not in any way warrant or guarantee the success of any action which you take in reliance on our statements. Hillbent.com, Inc. or its affiliates may own positions in the equities mentioned in our reports. We do not receive any compensation from any of the companies covered in our reports.

 

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