Views From The Hill

View From The Hill: October-16-2015

Commentary and Performance

bulls-and-bearsThe major stock indexes clearly show a bias towards large caps as small-caps continue to lag the market in performance. The Russell-2000 closed @ 1162.31 (-0.46 / -0.04%) while the SP-500 finished the day @ 2033.11 (+9.25 / +0.46%) and the Nasdaq-100 @ 4438.62 (+20.40 / +0.46%).

The VIX, also known as Volatility, remains in downward trend @ 15.05 (-1.00 / -6.23%).

Treasury rates were more or less flat with little to no change. The 30-Yr rate ended the day @ 28.64 (-0.09 / -0.31%) and the 10-Yr rate saw no change at all @ 20.23 (0.00 / 0.00%).

As mentioned previously, the US Dollar Index is coming off levels of solid support so we should continue to see some upward movement. The greenback closed @ 94.73 (+0.29 / +0.31%).

The uptrend for Gold is still intact but the shiny yellow metal took a pause and retreated slightly to 1177.40 (-5.60 / -0.47%). WTI Crude Oil bounced higher to 47.73 (+0.87 / +1.86%) and shook off the bearish news of yesterday’s EIA inventory supply report.

Real Estate assets continue to deliver consistent performance. The Dow Jones Real Estate Index closed @ 294.19 (+2.21 / +0.76%) and the Dow Jones Home Construction Index continued its bullish reversal pattern @ 580.28 (+1.51 / +0.26%).

Signing off at Hillbent…

 

Daily Chart Analysis

The market is a bit overextended but the double bottom confirms price support. A consolidation phase would be preferable to a continued run-up in stock prices as it would establish further price support as opposed to short sellers merely covering positions and limiting losses. Anticipate resistance at the former uptrend line that was violated on August-20-2015.

 

sp-500_oct-16-2015-daily
Click to enlarge

Market Breadth

  • Advancers (1467) vs. Decliners (1418).
  • New 5-day highs (993) significantly lagged the number of New 5-day lows (393)
  • New 52-week highs (174) also trailed new 52-week lows (81)
  • Bullish reversals (63) lagged Bearish reversals (862)

 

Volume Radar Alerts

Stock prices increasing on high volume
  • General Electric (GE) @ 28.98 (+3.39%) on 506% volume surge
  • Mattel Inc (MAT) @ 23.89 (+6.04%) on 429% volume surge
  • Teleflex Inc (TFX) @ 126.75 (+1.50%) on 371% volume surge
  • Garmin LTD (GRMN) @ 34.09 (+5.61%) on 309% volume surge
  • Colfax Corp (CFX) @ 28.07 (+1.67%) on 285% volume surge
Stock prices declining on high volume
  • Synchrony Financial (SYF) @ 30.15 (-3.74%) on 1302% volume surge
  • Quanta Services Inc (PWR) @ 18.74 (-28.50%) on 1163% volume surge
  • Kansas City Southern (KSU) @ 87.37 (-10.85%) on 753% volume surge
  • Spirit Airlines Inc (SAVE) @ 42.38 (-15.34%) on 728% volume surge
  • W. W. Grainger Inc (GWW) @ 207.65 (-6.31%) on 489% volume surge

 

Market Moving Events

Bullish

  • Central Banks / ECB / Quantitative Easing: Speculation continues that stimulus measures will be continued due to the persistent economic weakness in Europe.
  • Economy / Employment / USA: The JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) for August 2015 remains at respectably high levels despite the contraction vs last month. There were 5.37mm openings vs. prior revised @ 5.668mm. The turnover rate, or people quitting, is still extremely low @ 1.9%.
  • Economy / Consumer / USA: Consumer Sentiment for October-2015 ran @ 92.1 and exceeded consensus estimates @ 89.5 and prior @ 87.2.
  • Positive Earnings Surprise: GE reported $0.32 EPS vs. consensus @ $0.26.

Bearish

  • Geopolitical / Middle East: Turkey shot down an unidentified aircraft flying within its airspace which is located near the Syrian border.

Neutral

  • Economy / Inflation / Europe: The EU’s HICP Inflation report for September-2015 was in line with consensus estimates for a monthly increase @ 0.2% and annually decline @ -0.1%.
  • Economy / Production / USA: Weakness in the Industrial Production report for September-2015 continues since August-2015. The monthly change in production stood @ -0.2% vs. consensus @ -0.3%, while manufacturing contracted -0.1% vs. consensus @ -0.2% and capacity utilization rates were @ 77.5%. vs. consensus @ 77.4%.

 

Disclaimer

Hillbent does not provide individualized market advice. The information we publish regards securities in which we believe our readers may be interested and our reports reflect our sincere opinions. Nevertheless, they are not intended to be personalized recommendations to buy, hold, or sell securities. Investments in the securities markets, and especially in options, are speculative and involve substantial risk. Each individual investor should determine their respective appropriate level of risk. It is recommended that you seek personal advice from your professional investment advisor and conduct further independent due diligence research before acting on information published in any of our reports. Most of our information is derived directly from information published by the companies on which we report and/or from other sources we deem to be reliable, without our independent verification. Therefore, we cannot assure the completeness or accuracy of information contained within these reports and we do not in any way warrant or guarantee the success of any action which you take in reliance on our statements. Hillbent.com, Inc. or its affiliates may own positions in the equities mentioned in our reports. We do not receive any compensation from any of the companies covered in our reports.

 

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