Commentary and Performance
After digesting yesterday’s FOMC interest rate policy announcement, the market assigned a higher probability to a rate hike in December-2015 or early 2016. Today’s positive economic data may have exceeded any negative news, but the bearish overweight of the GDP and Home Price Index reports were enough to neutralize any bullish considerations.
The SP-500 closed @ 2089.41 (-0.94 / -0.04%). The Nasdaq-100 ended @ 4670.77 (-7.81 / -0.71%). The Rusell-2000 was the most vulnerable to selling and finished @ 1165.63 (-13.09 / -1.11%).
The downtrend has not changed for the VIX despite its closing @ 14.61 (+0.28 / +1.95%).
The bond market may be taking the Federal Reserve seriously as interest rates crossed above their 55-day moving averages for treasury notes and bonds with the 10-Yr @ 21.73 (+0.81 / +3.87%) and the 30-Yr @ 29.65 (+1.02 / +3.56%).
The US Dollar Index encountered some minor resistance and closed @ 97.21 (-0.43 / -0.44%).
Gold crossed below its 22-day moving average to close @ 1145.50 (-10.20 / -0.88%). WTI Crude Oil conceded all of its earlier gains to close @ 46.06 (-0.11 / -0.24%).
The Dow Jones Real Estate Index completed its fourth day of consolidation @ 297.49 (-0.28 / -0.09). The Dow Jones Home Construction Index simply could not ignore today’s weak housing data as it halted its recent uptrend and violated support at its 22-day moving average to close @ 570.96 (-17.04 / -2.90%).
Daily Chart Analysis
Momentum took a rest today as the number of stocks holding support at their 20 and 50 day moving averages has receded by a few percentage points. We are now approaching resistance at the bottom of the uptrend channel and must await Friday’s weekly perspective. No further comments…
- Advancers (900) vs. Decliners (1988).
- New 5-day highs (1095) vs. New 5-day lows (405)
- New 52-week highs (300) vs. new 52-week lows (203)
- Bullish reversals (69) vs. Bearish reversals (867)
Volume Radar Alerts
- Allergan PLC (AGN) @ 304.38 (+5.98%) on 486% volume surge
- World Fuel Service Corp (INT) @ 43.83 (+12.82%) on 387% volume surge
- Clear Channel Outdoor Holdings Inc (CCO) @ 7.51 (+1.76%) on 358% volume surge
- Hanesbrand Inc (HBI) @ 31.65 (+14.67%) on 260% volume surge
- L-3 Communication Hldgs (LLL) @ 138.40 (+2.24%) on 248% volume surge
- GNC Holdings Inc (GNC) @ 28.24 (-26.92%) on 1251% volume surge
- New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) @ 16.86 (-12.00%) on 705% volume surge
- F5 Networks Inc. (FFIV) @ 110.08 (-9.28%) on 536% volume surge
- Santander Consumer USA Hldgs (SC) @ 18.86 (-15.62) on 414% volume surge
- Service Corp Int’l (SCI) @ 28.17 (-5.09%) on 386% volume surge
Market Moving Events
- Central Banks / Monetary Policy / China: China’s government remains committed to continual stimulus by targeting an average annual GDP growth @ 6.53% to achieve its goal of a “moderately prosperous society”.
- Central Banks / Monetary Policy / Japan: The Bank of Japan continued its loose monetary policy by keeping interest rates unchanged.
- Real Estate / Residential / UK: Great Britain’s HPI (home price index) for October-2015 was stronger than consensus estimates: monthly @ 0.6% vs. estimates @ 0.5% and prior @ 0.5%; and annual @ 3.9% vs. estimates @ 3.8% and prior @ 3.8%.
- Economy / Employment / Germany: The unemployment rate for Germany in October-2015 remained unchanged and in-line with expectations @ 6.4%
- Economy / Sentiment / Europe: Economic Sentiment for October-2015 improved in Europe to 105.9 vs. estimates @ 105.2 and prior @ 105.6.
- Economy / Employment / USA: Unemployment Claims for the week of October-24-2014 were @ 260k vs. consensus @ 265k and prior @ 259k.
- Economy / Growth / USA: Q3-2015 GDP was 1.5% vs. consensus @ 1.7% and prior @ 3.9%.
- Real Estate / Residential / USA: The Pending Home Sales Index for September-2015 was lower @ -2.3% vs. consensus @ 1.0% and prior @ -1.4%.
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