Commentary & Performance
As Frozen’s Elsa would say: “nothing different”. The market condition for equities is unchanged. Large-cap indices such as the SP-500 (SPY) and Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) continue to show resilience relative to the small-cap Russell-2000 (IWM).
In the bond market, the short-term trend for the 20-Yr+ Treasury ETF (TLT) was downgraded from neutral to bearish.
Volatility (VXX) made a new 6-day high but a comeback rally in stocks sent it to finish in negative territory without violating the support of yesterday’s low.
Amongst the major currencies, the US Dollar (UUP) continues to lag as it made it new 17-day low in today’s trading session. Meanwhile, the Euro (FXE) is preparing to test resistance at its April-6-2015 high @ $108.51. In a similar manner, the Yen (FXY) is also approaching a key resistance test at its April-17-2015 high @ $81.84.
Over the last 3 trading sessions, the DB Commodity Index ETF (DBC) has been consolidating its gains and may likely challenge resistance levels at its February-2015 highs. Today’s price action in Gold (GLD) was quite bullish enough to give us a legitimate breakout and new 16-day high. As a result, I have upgraded its short-term outlook from neutral to bullish and intermediate trend from bearish to neutral. Crude Oil (USO) continues to consolidate its gains and build support at current levels. It’s proven a very choppy and difficult market to trade. Sometimes the best thing to do is nothing at all until the market provides more clarity and such is the case with oil.
Although the Dow Jones Real Estate (IYR) is trending downward, it has been consolidating for the past 12 days. Presently, the Home Construction ETF (ITB) is testing a key support level with potential for a double bottom. A violation of this would obviously expose investors to more downside risks.
Signing off at Hillbent…