Weekly Capital Markets Technical Analysis Summary: June-2-2017

Posted on Posted in Views From The Hill

Stocks: US Equity indexes continued to make new highs, with exception of the Transports which are attempting a key bullish reversal after a recent price correction. Russell-2000 small caps also failed to achieve a new high and may be encountering some resistance. Lately, the real standout has been the interest rate sensitive Utilities index, which cleared resistance for a new all-time high.

Volatility: Judging from the performance of the VIX, perceptions toward market risks remain complacent. If one is concerned about the market, it certainly makes for a cheap way to insure a portfolio.

Bonds: Both 10 and 30 year treasury rates extended their declines, thus suggesting the Federal Reserve may have to fade plans on tightening. Technically, rates could fall considerably lower before finding support at their 50-week moving averages. At this point, the only thing to prevent such would be a fundamental catalyst inserting itself into the market narrative as the POTUS Trump administration spins fake or real news, depending on your political bias, out of control from Washington, DC.

Currencies: Amongst the major currencies, the US Dollar is trending downward against the Euro and Yen. Both economies are showing long overdue signs of rebound and expansion.

Commodities: Meanwhile in commodities, the bullish trend for the trade of “long Gold vs short Crude Oil” has not changed. The weaker dollar helps Gold while the growing number of drilling rigs coming online should keep production high enough to put a lid on oil prices @ $50-$52 per barrel of WTI Crude.

Real Estate: Homebuilders remains our preferred play within the real estate markets.

 

(See weekly performance summary table below)

 

 

5 Day RS

Index

Close

5 Day %

YTD %

% 50 MA

% 200 MA

Equities

93

DOW Industrials

21,206.29

0.60%

7.31%

1.90%

7.74%

77

DOW Transportations

9,331.72

1.69%

3.18%

2.78%

6.02%

81

DOW Utilities

732.63

1.72%

11.07%

3.88%

8.61%

97

S&P 500 Index

2,439.07

0.96%

8.94%

2.59%

7.56%

98

Nasdaq Composite

6,305.80

1.54%

17.14%

4.85%

12.84%

100

Nasdaq 100 Index

5,881.46

1.61%

20.93%

5.73%

14.86%

84

Russell 2000 Index

1,405.39

1.67%

3.56%

1.84%

5.95%

Volatility

10

CBOE VIX

9.75

-0.61%

-30.56%

-17.86%

-23.83%

Bonds

10

10-Year Tsy Rate

2.15

-4.44%

-11.89%

-6.52%

-0.92%

52

10-Year Tsy Note

128.97

-0.21%

-1.64%

-1.50%

0.72%

17

30-Year Tsy Rate

2.81

-3.44%

-8.17%

-4.75%

-0.71%

79

30-Year T-Bond

137.97

-0.07%

-4.73%

-3.01%

 n/a
Currencies

1

U.S. Dollar Index

96.66

-0.76%

-5.43%

-2.43%

-2.82%

94

Euro FX

1.13

0.86%

7.21%

3.47%

4.12%

58

Japanese Yen

0.90

0.31%

5.47%

0.21%

-0.93%

Commodities

99

Gold

1,278.84

0.96%

11.06%

1.74%

2.95%

94

Silver

17.54

1.21%

10.25%

0.54%

-0.13%

77

High Grade Copper

2.58

-0.04%

3.18%

0.19%

4.94%

1

Crude Oil

48.32

-1.13%

-10.10%

-2.50%

-2.60%

Real Estate

90

U.S. Real Estate Index

316.50

1.02%

3.82%

1.13%

2.43%

94

U.S. Home Construction Index

674.71

2.38%

25.84%

3.48%

15.03%

 

 

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